Death rate for known positive cases now at 3.5 percent in Graham County
By Jon Johnson
SAFFORD – The Graham County Department of Health and Human Services (GCDHHS)announced an additional death from COVID-19 on Saturday night.
The victim was a Safford resident over the age of 65 The additional death makes 15 in just over two weeks and brings the county’s total to 21.
Along with the new death, the county announced nine new positive tests to bring the total to 605 cases, according to the GCDHHS. The new positive tests put Graham County at 60 for the week with one day left, which is slightly more than the previous week.
With the additional positive test numbers and new death, the county’s death rate of those known to be infected raised to roughly 3.5 percent. However, a number of people who get infected show little to no symptoms and do not end up getting tested, so the death rate is likely lower than the one that can be calculated.
To date, Graham County has administered tests to 3,286 people with 605 positives, 355 active cases, 229 recovered cases, and 21 deaths. According to GCDHHS criteria, a positive test is not considered a recovered patient until they have 30 days symptom-free. Graham County has about 39,000 residents.
The state’s database lists Graham County’s positive test cases to include 100 who are under 20 years of age, 262 between 20-44, 66 between 45-54, 63 between 55-64, and 112 who are 65 years old or older.
Graham County has a positive PCR (nasal swab) test rate of 11.7 percent and a serology (antibody) test rate of 2.2 percent, giving it a total positive of 9.8 percent in total. According to benchmarks set by the Arizona Department of Health Services for counties to reopen to in-person school instruction, counties should have two weeks with positivity tests below 7 percent. Other benchmarks include a two-week decline in weekly average cases or two weeks below 100 cases per 100,000 population, and two weeks with less than 10 percent of hospital visits due to COVID-19. Graham County has a rate of 1,569.8 cases per 100,000 residents and currently fails at two of the three benchmarks. The benchmarks for opening shuttered businesses are similar, and Graham County had met two of them until the recent week’s increase of positive cases.
Greenlee County
The Greenlee County Health Department hasn’t had a new positive test announced in over a week. Its current total is 58, however, the state lists the county at 57. As of Saturday, the department has administered tests to 957 people, with 836 being negative, 58 positives, and 63 results pending. The county lists 14 active cases, 42 recovered cases, and two deaths. Greenlee County has about 10,000 residents.
Greenlee County only has a positive test rate of 5.4 percent PCR and 1.7 percent antibody for a total rate of 5 percent positive, but its rate of cases is 549 per 100,000 population (according to ADHS numbers). However, it could still register a two-week decrease in weekly average cases and therefore could be eligible to re-open to in-person learning on Aug. 17.
The breakdown of the Greenlee cases include three under the age of 20, 34 between 20-44, nine between 45-54, seven between 55-64, and five who are 65 years old or older.
Greenlee County has now met all three benchmarks for business reopening. It appears that it may have met the benchmarks for schools to reopen as well, however, due to the lag in reporting with the state, the state’s database does not yet reflect that.
San Carlos Apache Tribe
The San Carlos Apache Tribe stretches into both Graham and Gila counties and its cases add to the respective counties’ cases based on the geography of where the patients reside. On Sunday, the San Carlos Apache Tribe Department of Health & Human Services reported six new positive tests for the reservation.
To date, the Tribe has administered tests to 5,242 people with 4,521 negative, 641 positives, and 80 results pending.
The Tribe lists 93 currently active cases, with 543 recovered cases, and fivve deaths.
The area breakdown on the reservation includes Gilson Wash – 109 positive, 86 recovered, 22 active, one death; Peridot – 221 positive, 195 recovered, 22 active, four deaths; 7-Mile – 101 positive, 92 recovered, nine active; Bylas – 165 positive, 129 recovered, 36 active; other areas – 45 positive, 41 recovered, four active.
Statewide
For the state, the Arizona Department of Health Services reported 883 new cases Sunday to bring the total to 193,537 for the state. It added just 14 new deaths Sunday to bring the total fatalities due to COVID-19 to 4,506 in Arizona. The numbers of both new positive tests and deaths appear to be trending downward. The state has about 7.3 million residents.
The deaths by age group for the entire state include 3,232 who were 65 years old or older, 694 who were between 55-64, 309 who were between 45-54, 260 who were between 20-44, and 11 who were less than 20 years old. The state currently lists that 80 percent of the intensive care unit (ICU) beds across the state are in use and hospitalization cases have a downward trend.
Reported positive cases in the various counties include Maricopa County with 129,385 Pima County – 19,581, Yuma County – 11,861, Pinal County – 8,710, Navajo County – 5,452, Mohave County – 3,363, Apache County – 3,241, Coconino County – 3,180, Santa Cruz County – 2,704, Yavapai County – 2,146, Cochise County – 1,761, Gila County – 1,002, Graham County – 604, La Paz County – 490, Greenlee County – 57 (county lists it at 58).
